Commander 2015: Value Primer

Discussions about the secondary market for Magic Cards. What's Hot? What has fallen from grace?

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Commander 2015: Value Primer

Postby Thrillho » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:09 am

Hello.
Instead of doing the normal and boring "here's a list of cards and prices" summary, I wanted to look at values of new cards in Commander 2015 and see where they relate to Constructed, and possibly extensions in Commander itself. I am not very familiar with Commander as a whole, but I recently went through several boxes of bulk and normal rares trying to cull wheat from chaff and reorganize parts of my collection I may not have been paying enough attention to and, as a result, found out that there are certain cards (including those reprinted in Commander 2015) that have non-zero value.

Constructed:
The big three cards coming out of Commander 2015 from presale prices are Daretti, Scrap Savant (the red Planeswalker/recurring Goblin Welder), Dualcaster Mage (the 2/2 Fork for 1RR), and Containment Priest (the anti-Reanimator/Dredge Hatebear with Flash). Their current low values on TCGPlayer as of writing this are $18, $15, and $13 and change, respectively. No other card in Commander comes with presale hype even close to these three cards, and this includes reprints of other hot cards (the biggest being Wurmcoil Engine, which is currently valued at a low of $8).

Daretti is an interesting card. It has been ages since Goblin Welder was a relevant card in Legacy, and I don't think it was being suppressed by looting effects, 4cc permanents not being cheated into play, or an unattainable emblem. However, having a permanent Goblin Welder with additional modes that all work with welding, and the benefit of being a reasonably-costed general (and, similarly, attainably-costed Planeswalker) make it a card I would assume Commander players want. Daretti will not keep its value unless broken in Legacy, and given that the deck comes with Goblin Welders that are more likely to be re-broken than require a whole new, 4-mana card, I would ship these off, rebuy when the market has had its share of open Red Commander Decks, and wait for Commander players to appreciate the value of this card.

Dualcaster Mage seems very sick on onset. Misdirection, albeit free to cast, is a real Legacy card, as is Red Elemental/PyroBlast. This card does an impression of both, but with legs, and with applications neither has. For example, in Legacy, Dualcaster Mage's primary mode will likely be bouncing a copied Force of Will back at the original copy of the spell. That's a decent trade -- you 1-for-2 your opponent and keep a 2/2 in the process. You can also copy your opponent's (and your own) Brainstorm/1cc card selection spells, copy Lightning Bolts/other burn spells, gain insight on your opponent's hand with discard spells and Gitaxian Probe, and, most importantly, Treasure Cruise on the back of your opponent's graveyard. The problem with these scenarios is that this is all on the back of 3-untapped mana, including double red. Having this as a 1-2 of in UR Delver or as a sideboard card for Burn or Delver seems like a very niche and potentially devastating fit for this card. However, the 3cc seems to be the death knell for this card according to Wrapter of ChannelFireball in a recent MagicTV session. If this card is good, it's in the Commander deck with the most value (and therefore most demand but similarly most quantities opened), so I would hedge on selling at a likely marginal loss if it does take off (compare with True-Name Nemesis) than risking it tanking because 3cc is an actual joke mana cost for Legacy, a format where you can pay 3cc to summon Griselbrand or Emrakul and win the game. Dualcaster Mage is likely hamstrung by being too fair for its own good, even in spite of all of the unfair things you can potentially do with it.

Containment Priest is the last card with a lot of hype behind it. Similar to Dualcaster Mage, Containment Priest does a lot of similar things to real existing Magic cards in the Legacy format, but does them in a different enough way (this one's a 2/2! with Flash!) that the card is preselling for roughly the third of the value of the deck it comes in. There are a million and one takes on Rest in Peace, many of which can share space with decks that could cast Rest in Peace in Legacy. Rest in Peace (and Leyline of the Void) also hit spells. In the case of Leyline of the Void, the card is free and in play on turn 0 (ideally). So is that all that can be said about Containment Priest, it's a more expensive, less far-reaching Rest in Peace/Leyline of the Void/Grafdigger's Cage? Well, this one has a 2/2 body behind it. Not only that, but you can cast it when your opponent is about to go off and claim victory, while the other cards need to be in play and have your opponent merely not play their game until they draw a way to deal with your graveyard hate of choice. Which isn't to say the game ends when you cast this, as your opponent can kill your active copy of Containment Priest after that initial "Gotcha!" and go back to playing Magic. However, that ability to play both pro- and reactively with a 2/2, which also isn't dead as just a 2/2, is what gives this card legs (pun intended) versus the Reanimator/Sneak and Show/Dredge competition. That the card also costs 1W, compared with Dualcaster Mage's 1RR, also boosts its air play as a card that can be sideboarded into more than just Death and Taxes (though that will inarguablely be where it finds its most consistent home). Is $13 too much for all of those things in a semi-limited release product? Probably. Most of the creatures that primarily reside in Death and Taxes will not break your budget, aside from Stoneforge Mystic, which is one of the greatest creatures printed in the game and is also close to 5 years out of print. Compare it also to True-Name Nemesis, a card much better than it that is roughly the same cost (though in part because it was reprinted past the point of its earlier $30 pricetag). $13 is probably too much for this. It may experience a surge after release because it does perform in Legacy, but that value will come down as more Commander product is opened. It is unlikely the card will remain above $13 long-term. It is, however, the card I think that is most likely to surge past its presale value of the three most valuable ones.

[More to come later]

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Fri Nov 07, 2014 6:47 pm

Question:

I'd be interesting in having the new legendary/mythics cards (as in not reprints) like Freyalise, the Third path Guy, the planeswalkers, Gisa, Geralf, etc..., plus the potential staples (the Dualcaster, etc...).

Should I buy the 5 Decks and then try to flip whatever I don't need, or should I just buy the singles instead? I'm leaning towards just buying the singles, but I don't want to miss on a particular deck where I could potentially make some savings by just paying MSRP and flipping what I don't need for added value. The red deck comes to mind.

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Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby Thrillho » Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:44 pm

The thing is the cards you're interested in are generally the cards of interest in each deck and the reprints of value (Wurmcoil etc) will take some time to reach their stable value. So you're deflating your value balloon and then waiting to recover value from bits and pieces. Personally I would just buy singles unless one deck in particular is packed with cards you want.

For me, I decided I wanted to build an irl copy of the wizards legacy cube and the green deck is loaded with cards in the cube update, so I bought that. I bought 4 copies of containment Priest and 0 copies of the white deck.

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Postby Thrillho » Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:45 pm

This advice goes out the window if you can get a discount on the decks for whatever reason. Keep in mind wizards is probably going to be better about availability of this edition of commander after the previous two iterations were so unbalanced.

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Postby Checkbox » Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:09 am

I got all 5 decks for $133 shipped... that is reasonable right?

Granted, I'm just keeping all the cards for cube and EDH
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Postby Thrillho » Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:57 am

You can still get deals within dollars of that on tcgplayer so eh

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Postby Stardust » Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:48 pm

Huh, didn't do my research on this one, so I didn't know you could find them for so cheap online. I got mine for $155 from a guy in town here, and he was a bit pissed that he'd accepted my deal since people were offering him $225. I'll make sure to check next time around, because he probably won't be selling the next batch so cheap if people are willing to give him $200 cash.
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Postby Thrillho » Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:23 pm

What's online buying precious

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Postby Checkbox » Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:39 pm

Stardust » Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:48 am wrote:Huh, didn't do my research on this one, so I didn't know you could find them for so cheap online. I got mine for $155 from a guy in town here, and he was a bit pissed that he'd accepted my deal since people were offering him $225. I'll make sure to check next time around, because he probably won't be selling the next batch so cheap if people are willing to give him $200 cash.


MSRP is $175 plus tax.... There are enough Targets and Walmarts around.
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Thrillho » Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:27 am wrote:let it be known that my official decree as administrator of this site is that the grimmace's dick is 16" long.

Kaitscralt » Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:41 am wrote:it's not cheating if you hand her the jizz afterwards

imopen2 » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:55 pm wrote:Get the hairbrush out of your ear and put it in your ass where it belongs, then try again

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Postby Stardust » Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:12 pm

Apparently not.
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Postby Thrillho » Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:27 pm

Summary statement for the remaining decks:
There are a bunch of new cards and reprints in each of the decks that have traction in commander, but aside from established Constructed cards (Wurmcoil Engine, etc), you're going to be sitting on your thumbs for a while with any singles and especially with sealed product. My advice is to sit on the red deck because of it's wealth of obvious value. Possibly also the White deck if Nahiri is a card that is real.

Singles are depressing in value pretty rapidly right now. Everyone is trying to milk their cow right away and at the same time. If you see something you like, now is probably the best time to buy it unless you're literally incapable of picking out cards that are good in constructed or EDH, including those that are reprints.

Hold onto your containment priests because they'll be useful in legacy and possibly even pick up value after this weekend if a standout deck with them emerges. Watching Paul Cheon play with Dualcaster Mage in a Legacy Cube draft deck comprised entirely of synergy and value has shown me that even in a deck made for it with a wealth of cards you wouldn't even see in Legacy in two as options to copy that that card is kind of crap. Maybe somehow a faster and more streamlined metagame somehow makes the clunky card better but I find that claim suspect.

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:29 am

Well by now its pretty evident what is the Flusterstorm/True-Name Nemesis of this set.

Everything other than containment priest has been taking a hit
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Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby Kaitscralt » Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:50 pm

you're a reef worm
Lord_Mcdonalds » Yesterday, 3:13 pm wrote: Standard hobos who play budget garbage should be looked upon with suspicion.

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Postby Kaitscralt » Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:50 pm

that's what they call navy pigs right
Lord_Mcdonalds » Yesterday, 3:13 pm wrote: Standard hobos who play budget garbage should be looked upon with suspicion.

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Postby Kaitscralt » Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:33 pm

close but no cigar
Lord_Mcdonalds » Yesterday, 3:13 pm wrote: Standard hobos who play budget garbage should be looked upon with suspicion.


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