LEGO Movie Mafia - Game Over - Town Win

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Azrael
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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:55 pm

Oh shit, that could explain why Rez died.
Oh man. I'm just helplessly staring at my screen in disbelief at this point. This is like the most epic example of how possible tells are awful that I've ever run into.

Mafia isn't won by dreaming up scenarios that COULD be true, and COULD prove that someone is scum. You can make up plausible scum narratives for most anyone, at anytime.

Mafia is won by looking at what IS certain, at what you can see is true, the patterns you can see in player's words and thoughts.

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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:58 pm

Now that's WIFOM.
No, that's a valid question. I'm supposedly smart enough to anticipate a vig and counter it, but dumb enough to not want to kill a guy who hated me and declared he had an investigation, because I wanted to use wording supplied to me by Rez in a quickchat to verify myself as a master builder rather than just, say, NOT BEING INVESTIGATED BY A COP

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:59 pm

Mafia is won by looking at what IS certain, at what you can see is true, the patterns you can see in player's words and thoughts.
And what IS certain right now?

We've got one claimed cop saying you're scum. We've got another saying the first one is town. We've got a claimed failed vig that doesn't mean shit.

IF ANYONE IS GETTING HUNG, Az, YOU'RE IT.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:12 pm

Mafia is won by looking at what IS certain, at what you can see is true, the patterns you can see in player's words and thoughts.
And what IS certain right now?

We've got one claimed cop saying you're scum. We've got another saying the first one is town. We've got a claimed failed vig that doesn't mean shit.

IF ANYONE IS GETTING HUNG, Az, YOU'RE IT.
What's certain right now is that every time I try to direct people into actual behavioral analysis, they don't want to do it. And at this late stage, it wouldn't even do us much good here, because the two players that need to be read most badly, RN and Imopen, were allowed to camouflage themselves all game amongst a crowd of townie lurkers. You could try reading me behaviorally, but no one's got the patience or experience to do it properly.

We could have made this work if the other players cooperated with my plans to make a simul-lynch happen. But everyone's already submitted all their plans.

We could have made a lynch on Imopen work, but you seem ready to come up with a thousand role-based reasons to ignore the failed vig, while ignoring the equally plausible thousand role-based reasons and behavioral reasons that Imopen's result on me is just as unreliable as the failed vig.

If the scum have the means and the desire to tamper with a vigilante device that they may or may not have known was coming, how much more so would they have had the desire to tamper with Imopen's pending investigation, that he telegraphed to the entire thread for no good reason?

If you're discounting the failed vig as good evidence, why are you still trusting the investigation to be accurate?

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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:38 pm

Final sentence of the last post is critical, but I'm reraising this point that you glossed over, as well. Do you think I'm dumb enough scum to let a cop nab me when I could have stopped it, Dechs?

Your theory requires me to be that dumb.

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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:48 pm

This is a PM that I sent to Stardust just now:

[quote="Azrael']
Post-game, the debate over whether I should have been unilateral and taken out Imopen when he was still at three votes is going to be interesting.

On the one hand, it'd be easy to say with hindsight that it'd bring the game home for the town. But it's also against the spirit of the game and the general rule that it's better to talk through every possible permutation of the scenario that needs to be addressed, and decide things as a group with the benefit of the group's knowledge. Is it really a win, as a team, if one player unilaterally picks off all the scum? And I hate the idea that one player, even if he has some amount of special knowledge, should make unilateral decisions about the town's lynch. :/

I guess it comes down to fear and faith. I'm used to working with towns that have faith in me, and in towns that I can have faith in. When that's not the case, maybe a different set of rules are called for. I've been wanting to cooperate with the town throughout the whole game, to reach decisions together, to not be the lone wolf making all the choices and all the analysis, but maybe I should have recognized that a partnership is only possible if you have partners who buy into the same process as you.

I guess my focus has been more on making this the kind of place that I want to play mafia, and playing the style that's worked for me in the past, then on recognizing the situation for what it is, accepting it, and trying to win this particular game by adapting my tactics to an entirely different, less serious meta. Hmm.[/quote]

IDK if it's too late to try to figure out how to make this work, whether there's still time to change my tactics to fit, but I guess I have to try. I'm not even sure how to begin, though, or even if I ought to.

Like, railing at people to do behavioral analysis like I'm used to doing isn't doing any good at all. That's out. Doing the analysis myself isn't working so hot either, even with GR, only the deadline and the complete lack of anyone else doing cases has made the lynches on GR and Ham go through.

But I don't know how else to play and still be effective in case-making. I guess I could try to go with being less oriented on the details of the case, and more effective in being persuasive and clear? Put all my effort into the presentation, since the details are too boring and arcane? Huh.

I don't know think that's quite right, though. It's not that people aren't talking about detailed subjects, it's that people are looking at the detailed subjects, evaluating them, in strange ways. Be persuasive in the details that do interest people, I guess. Control frustration. Set reasonable goals and expectations.

Back to work.

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:29 pm

Screw this

vote imopen2

If we can't have both, I'd rather have imopen2 lynched. He's been passive enough that the choice is easy.
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Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby Azrael » Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:34 pm

Screw this

vote imopen2

If we can't have both, I'd rather have imopen2 lynched. He's been passive enough that the choice is easy.
Vote Imopen2.

You guys know why.

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Postby imopen2 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:53 pm

Last ditch, huh?

iirc, I only explained my device because YOU (az) and kpaca forced me to. The same two people that I suspect of being scum right now. I fought to keep my device a secret for several pages AND YOU FORCED ME TO CLAIM IT.

Enough of this. LMD, are you as sick of this as me? Can you please vote Az?
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Postby Stardust » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:02 pm

Votecount!

Azrael (2): imopen2, RedNihilist
No Lynch (1): Dechs Kaison
imopen2 (2): Col. Khaddafi, Azrael

Not voting: Lord_Mcdonalds

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.


Deadline Clock.
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Postby Mcdonalds » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:27 pm

I'll trust imopen on this one I guess, tomorrow is important though

vote azrael

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Postby Azrael » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:00 am

I'll trust imopen on this one I guess, tomorrow is important though

vote azrael
If I were scum, why is Imopen still alive? Why wouldn't I have killed him last night?

Why was Rezombad the mafia kill, instead of the guy who's now claiming cop?

Why did the scum miss a kill on night one, if not by me blocking their kill?

Why did Imopen survive CK's vig kill, which we should know from reading the thread, wasn't faked by Mojo?

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Postby Azrael » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:18 am

Why would I bus GR so hard, when no one else was interested?

Why would I then go out of my way to get Ham, a townie, lynched?

Why wouldn't I lynch Imopen, when he was at three votes, free for the taking?

Why has Imopen been so keen to be vigged, instead of lynched?

Why did I go to so much effort to make cases, while most of the town lurked?

Do you think the scum have a master builder?

Do you want to figure out the truth, or just guess at it? Do you want to research cases, or just vote with your gut? Do you want to look at evidence, or roll dice?

Here's my challenge to you and Dechs. Before you place the final vote that ends the game, do one small bit of real mafia research and make a decision based on your own judgment of what you find. Go back to day one. Read my interactions with GR, and his with me, up until his death. See how those interactions strike you. Do they look like a townie hunting scum, or not? And while you're at it, you may as well keep your eyes open for Red and Imopen, and what they were up to at the time.

It's not a long project. You don't even have to write a PBPA summary, just say how you came down. But just for one brief shining moment, I'd like to see someone else in this town go back, and play this game as it was meant to be played. And if you fail at it, fine. At least you'll have tried, and next time, you'll have a little more experience.

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:24 am

Vote Azrael
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Postby Azrael » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:35 am

Don't overthink things tomorrow with random theories about sabotage devices you don't know exist. Imopen's scum. Hopefully, he's scum by himself, and he has a broad-based immunity of some kind which fouled up RN's results on him. Hopefully, Stardust didn't build a game with only a single mislynch margin for error. That would be sad.

I've been doing the reread myself that I suggested you guys should do. I've already found some interesting tidbits. I'm debating between posting them, or simply suggesting that you guys go looking for them yourselves. Giving a man a fish, vs. teaching him to fish.

I suppose I could give you some hints, at least. Imopen's early interactions with both me and GR have some interesting implications. That's a good place for you guys to start looking, if you want to try honing your skills.

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Postby Stardust » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:44 am

That's a lynch. Twilight will last for 10 hours. You may continue posting.
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Postby Azrael » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:45 am

Early thread also disproved that CK and I were on the same scum team together.

Reading Mojo/CK as hard town, based on early interactions. Dechs is still hard town, always has been.

If you're looking for a conspiracy theory alternative for Imopen being scum, that leaves Red or LMD.

Of those two, I'd much prefer Red over LMD. LMD's just been innocuous. LMD's been quiet, but I've never sensed any artifice from him, or reticence in sharing his views.

Red should chronoboost CK for tomorrow, or he'll owe the thread an explanation. If he does, you'll be able to check out both Red and Imopen, hopefully.

The one thing that gives me pause about Imopen being scum is the same thing I've struggled with, all day. It makes very little sense for a single-scum Imopen to pull a gambit this way. The blowback the following day would almost certainly kill him, unless he has a buddy. But it involves some pretty funky, highly speculative abilities on the scum side for there to be any possibility of Imopen NOT being scum, especially given the failed vig kill on him.

IDK, maybe Imopen's just going for a hail mary play, since his buddy was already dead and he backed himself into a corner on giving some kind of cop results. Maybe he hoped that he could convince the town to follow his bogus results twice, and excuse the first time as someone messing with his ability.

Your play is either Red or Imopen, and given the failed vig-kill against Imopen, the implausibility of his cop-ability taking only two-days to build, the difficult of his claimed ability to sabotage, and his early game interactions, I'd give the nod decisively to killing off Imopen tomorrow.

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Postby Azrael » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:02 am

Puzzle pieces:

295

334

339

365

366

392

394

397

My opinion of the red posts are that they lean mostly town. I think that town read still holds true, if we're in a one-scum setup.

Imopen, not so much. PBPA him, tomorrow. See what else turns up.

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Postby imopen2 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:31 am

idk what you're playing at az, but i was told you were surely not telling the truth when you said you were town.
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Postby RedNihilist » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:12 am

Puzzle pieces:

295

334

339

365

366

392

394

397

My opinion of the red posts are that they lean mostly town. I think that town read still holds true, if we're in a one-scum setup.

Imopen, not so much. PBPA him, tomorrow. See what else turns up.
I'm writing this under the assumption that you'll flip town, as I don't really want to believe you'll do this amount of research just for the sake of hoping that somebody could save you during twilight.
This is not meant to be a lecture or anything, nor I'll be going to complain about the way you play or anything as you're clearly a better player than me, but I've really had a hard time playing with you.

I'm sorry I'm not the best player around, but I really find it difficult to consider my investigation results fake, so lynching you was the only move that could make sense from my perspective - I've also tried to interact with you at times, but when I called you out on mudslinging + terror strategies I was sincere.
You may have correctly identified GR, but you've also forced us all to lynch ham even with at least a couple of us 95% sure of him being town, and you've got your reads on me completely wrong at multiple times, that makes your work pretty average I'd say, even giving you credit for your understandable frustration on the last day.

I'd like to say that next time I'd like to have a better experience of playing with you but I'm quite fed up with mafia at the moment so I'd be lying.

Anyway, I'll read the posts you pointed out even if killing imopen is pretty much a given anyway at this point of the game if you turn out town.
See you in the post-game.

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:32 am

imopen, we're so lynching your ass tomorrow, assuming this isn't gg tonight in case you're buddies with Red
Image
Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby RedNihilist » Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:51 am

I'm town, so sleep peacefully ._.

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:23 pm

Yeah we will discuss this tomorrow :rolleyes:
Image
Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Night 3 - Ya'll Weren't Ready For This

Postby Stardust » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:09 pm

Azrael (4): imopen2, RedNihilist, Lord_Mcdonalds, Dechs Kaison
imopen2 (2): Col. Khaddafi, Azrael

Not voting: ...



Zapping termination in 28 Mississippi, 27 Mississippi, 26 Mississippi, 25 Mississippi...

As the countdown continues, Emmet has an idea. Tied firmly to the battery, he begins to rock the pedastal they are both standing on. Finally, they tip slowly forward and fall to the floor together.

22 Mississippi, 21 Mississippi, 20 Mississippi, 19 Mississippi...

"Emmet, no! What are you doing!" you all cry as he begins rolling towards the broken window, the infinite abyss of nothingness swirling far below.

16 Mississippi, 15 Mississippi, 14 Mississippi, 13 Mississippi...

"Now it's your turn to be the heroes," says Emmet with resolve. "See you later, alligators."

11 Mississippi, 10 Mississippi, 9 Mississippi, 8 Mississippi...

"Wait! Send Azrael instead!"

"What!?" cries Azrael.

"Yeah, that's a great idea!" you all agree. "Azrael can go!"

Finally, with only two Mississippi left to go, Azrael is thrown from the window along with the battery.

3 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 1 --- Mission error. Termination failure.

You're saved! After the fact you're all a little confused how that made any sense at all when you were completely immobilized in your think tank cubicles, and why didn't you just throw the battery out by itself? But there's no time to worry about that now! You've got to stop Lord Business!
Azrael's Role PM
Image
Azrael, you are Shaquille O'Neal, Master Builder.
Ya’ll ready for this? You and the 2002 NBA all-stars are. Basketball catapults aren’t the only thing you know how to build, and it’s going to take all your skill if you’re going to stop Lord Business.
You win when all threats to the universe have been eliminated.
Abilities: During the day, you may vote.
Master Builder – During each Day phase you may PM me up to three inventions that can do anything at all. I will reply with a time requirement to create each invention. You select one to begin working on, which may be ready to use as early as that Night. If an invention takes more than one Day to create, you may stop working on it to start something else - progress on the first will be paused in the meantime.
It is now Night 3. Day 4 will begin in 48 hours.
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Day 4 - You All Need To Be More Friendly

Postby Stardust » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:37 pm

"Oh Azrael... if only there were more people in the world like him..."

"Maybe there are!" says Emmet. "Come on!"

10 seconds later, you burst onto the set where they're filiming the latest episode of "Where Are My Pants?"

"Honey, where are my --"

"Hey, guess what? Found your pants! Series is over!" says RedNihilist as he throws a pair of legs at the actor's face and boots him off the stage.

"Emmet, send this out to everyone in the universe!" says RedNihilist, getting ready in front of the camera. "Hey, everybody. You don't know me, but I'm on TV, so you can trust me. I know things seem kind of bad right now, but there is a way out of this. This is Azrael. And he was just like --"

RedNihilist's rousing speech is cut off by a troop of robots storming the room. "No! No! Those are my friends!" cries RedNihilist as he watches the robots attack everyone else. "Stop! Stop!" but the robots aren't listening. "Please! You have to stop!" But they're everywhere and more just keep flooding the room!

"Ah forget it!" cries RedNihilist as he explodes with years of suppressed emotion. "YOU ALL NEED TO BE MORE FRIENDLY!!!"

RedNihilist whacks and smacks every robot present, eventually carrying on right out of the room, down the hallway and out the window, hundreds of robots falling out along with his hurricane of rage.

"RedNihilist! You sacrificed yourself. For us."

"Well let's not let Red's sacrifice be in vain," says Emmet. "We've got some Business to attend to!"
RedNihilist's Role PM
Image
RedNihilist, you are Princess Unikitty, Master Builder.
Every idea is a good idea! Except the not happy ones. Those we push down deep inside until we need to use it as a convenient plot device! Yay!
You win when all threats to the universe have been eliminated.
Abilities: During the day, you may vote.
Master Builder – During each Day phase you may PM me up to three inventions that can do anything at all. I will reply with a time requirement to create each invention. You select one to begin working on, which may be ready to use as early as that Night. If an invention takes more than one Day to create, you may stop working on it to start something else - progress on the first will be paused in the meantime.
Specialization – You are especially good at building devices that make other people happy!
It is now Day 4. With 4 alive it's 3 to lynch.
҉

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Postby Stardust » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:38 pm

As you head out of the office tower, ready to fight, you hear a voice coming from Emmet's back pocket...

"What the?"

It's a lego tape recorder...
Hey everyone, rezombad here :frog:
if i died night 2 or 3 and for some reason rednihilist isn't scum (he should be dead by now for that scummy as shit hammer day2) the remaining scum is azrael. based on him not using our quicktopic night 2 (it was available, i wanted to strategize and he totally ignored it).

if az is dead and rednihilist is dead here's my reads, scummiest to least scummy

lmd
scumbag
imopen (mind who he clears day3)
decks

because dechs was the main wagon day1 he shouldnt be scum.

you are also in mlyl at this point
(6day3)
(5night3)
(4day4)

good luck everyone. sorry we dont have anything to read on scumbag.


to recap:
Most town:
decks
imopen
scumbag
lmd
azrael
rednihilist
҉

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:44 pm

The good news is there's only one scum left.

The bad news is we're all going to think it's Imopen.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:53 pm

The worse news is that the right conditions were not met for my device.

The best news is those conditions won't even matter when I'm done with the second device tonight.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:56 pm

So, with that said, CK, shoot Imopen. You have 48 hours to comply.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:42 pm

vote imopen2

get out of town
Image
Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby Col. Khaddafi » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:47 pm

So, with that said, CK, shoot Imopen. You have 48 hours to comply.
Sadly Stardust told me I'm running out of parts, so if I want to do another vig shot like the first one, he won't be ready before the night.
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Originally posted by Galspanic on MTGS
I would still like to see the posts sent over to ( N_S ) and have the Salvation Gutter archived away and replaced with a link to MTGC.
Thank you for all the lies. Another fine display of integrity by iridium :thumbsup:

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Postby Mcdonalds » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:18 pm

So, with that said, CK, shoot Imopen. You have 48 hours to comply.
Sadly Stardust told me I'm running out of parts, so if I want to do another vig shot like the first one, he won't be ready before the night.
I genuinely do not know what to think of that

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:54 am

Did you build the chronoboost? Help him out.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby imopen2 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:41 am

Alright, I have no idea what happened. Obviously this situation does not look good for me. All I ask is that you consider this decision carefully. There must be one scum left. This supposed gambit that I'm running makes little sense to a single scum. You are all set to kill me now. Why would I put myself in this position?
Kijin Zabuza: My pokemon cards bring the boys to the yard
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!

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Postby imopen2 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:46 am

I used my second shot last night on a quote from post 919 (DK), where he says "I'm totally scum." He was being sarcastic, but stardust accepted this submission, and I got a positive result. DK was telling the truth when he said he was scum. Curiously, DK never participated in the "I am town" posts, so I had to dig quite hard for a viable statement.
Kijin Zabuza: My pokemon cards bring the boys to the yard
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!

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Postby imopen2 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:49 am

Of course I know that my word means very little at this point, and I myself am not sure if this result is accurate since the one on az was not, but if you lynch me, we will lose, and I think DK is our best shot at winning.
Kijin Zabuza: My pokemon cards bring the boys to the yard
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!

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Postby imopen2 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:51 am

Vote: DK
Kijin Zabuza: My pokemon cards bring the boys to the yard
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:46 am

I used my second shot last night on a quote from post 919 (DK), where he says "I'm totally scum." He was being sarcastic, but stardust accepted this submission, and I got a positive result. DK was telling the truth when he said he was scum. Curiously, DK never participated in the "I am town" posts, so I had to dig quite hard for a viable statement.
Um, yes I did.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:48 am

But hey, considering you said Az was scum, I'll consider your opinion of me as clearing me as town.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.

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Postby Dechs Kaison » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:58 am

Like I said, Imopen, I think you're innocent. It would have been stupid to make that gambit as a one scum team and you haven't already won, so there's clearly not a two scum team.

I want CK to shoot you. If he can, then LMD's our scum. If he can't, then I'm believing CK's our scum.
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.


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