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Running Tally: Theros

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:04 am
by Thrillho
We're into the first week of Theros after release. Prices reflect lowest 4+, NM available card value on TCGPlayer. Here's where everything stands:

1. Elspeth, Sun's Champion M 30.79
2. Stormbreath Dragon M 29.95
3. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver M 24.99
4. Thoughtseize R 18.77
5. Xenagos, the Reveler M 18.37
6. Purphoros, God of the Forge M 16.79
7. Thassa, God of the Sea M 13.84
8. Heliod, God of the Sun M 9.39
9. Erebos, God of the Dead M 7.98
10. Fleecemane Lion R 8.29
11. Nylea, God of the Hunt M 6.49
12. Master of Waves M 5.99
13. Sylvan Caryatid R 5.27
14. Anger of the Gods R 5.38
15. Hero's Downfall R 5.25
16. Temple of Silence R 5.05
17. Temple of Triumph R 4.92
18. Temple of Deceit R 4.92
19. Underworld Cerberus M 4.91
20. Temple of Ambition R 4.24

The cards stacked at the top of the value food chain are more than triple the price of the cards toward the bottom of it, but I
honestly don't think that can last -- in both directions. I think the lands are likely to go up in value, some of the niche cards like Hero's Downfall and Anger of the Gods will go down (Slagstorm never stuck above $3 for very long), a lot of the non-Standard mythics will come down substantially, the Planeswalkers, Dragon, and Thoughtseize will likely deflate as more supply is opened over the coming weeks (though will likely go back up if they remain good and fewer copies are opened so adjust your trading cycle as necessary).

The top 5 cards on the list are likely to remain there are they're the most played cards at the SCG Open and there's nothing to suggest that they're dramatically going to leave that slot unless the PT offers some abrupt format changes. The lands will likely drop in value if they don't go up immediately, but they will very likely go up unless they're replaced by something better in M15/as the block goes on.

It is unlikely any of the gods or fringe mythics will stay on this
list or at least at the prices they're currently at, aside from possibly Master of Waves because that cards seems kind of good in a Fish deck, even if that deck isn't tier-1, as people still play it regardless.

Some cards to look out for are Firedrinker Satyr, Polukranos, Whip of Erebos, Soldier of the Pantheon, Swan Song, Ashen Rider, and Spear of Heliod. I have my money on Boon Satyr, while many pros writing for the big stores have theirs on Steam Augury.

Expect prices to adjust wildly after the Pro Tour, especially if a new deck comes to the forefront.

Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:27 pm
by Thrillho
Boon Satyr is suddenly $4 on TCGPlayer.

Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:00 pm
by Thrillho
The god cards are all dropping in price.
Nearly all of them have fallen by $2-3 except for Nylea, who is stable if not slightly higher than it was at baseline.

Ashiok is gaining value slowly after losing some value (its stable overall). Stormbreath Dragon has lost a dollar or two. Elspeth is stable.

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:00 am
by InflatablePie
Hero's Downfall is at $15 (wtf). I regret not buying any at around $4-$5 and I also regret trading mine away at $6. That said, I'd drop them ASAP if you have them and aren't playing them. I don't see it staying this high for long, tbh.