Dies to Removal

As we identified before, it's just because I've been spoiled with better lands in every standard I've taken part in. Imagine if we had the buddy lands?

So either:

A:
3 Boros Guildgate
9 Mountain
3 Mutavault
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph

More white mana is very nice. The deck would be better able to make RR on two than currently, but would have slightly weaker sequencing otherwise (1 fewer untapped source).

OR

B:
2 Boros Guildgate
10 Mountain
3 Mutavault
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph

This mana base sequences very well (more untapped sources) and has more ability to Turn 1 a Firedrinker Satyr (such a big game).

Discuss.

I prefer A.
I like the third Guildgate, it hits both colours. Like I say yesterday, my sideboard is empty of Firedrinker. My current mana base are 8 Mountains; 4
Sacred Foundry; 4 Temple of Triumph; 3 Boros Guildgate; 4 Mutavault. I had already thinking by myself in trying the A option in my next tournament. I had a game last tournament that cost me the first place where after 2 Magma Jet Scry I can't find the second colour mana and I draw all the 4 Mutavault (keep a hand with one mountain and 2 mutavault).
In other way I really like the 4 Mutavault in the deck. My thought are in change or not one Mutavault for a mountain. I will not change the number of lands that produce white for now. I run 17 spells that cost me a white source, so I think 11 white sources are better for me. So the third Guildgate wins!

As we identified before, it's just because I've been spoiled with better lands in every standard I've taken part in. Imagine if we had the buddy lands?

I think buddylands would hurt us more than help us; they're so much more powerful in decks casting powerful spells than in ours.

So we've determined 4x vault is too greedy?

No. It is completely untested hahaha.

We have discussed it.

Yeah, I changed my mind to A after driving home and thinking about it.

For realz.

I admittedly haven't tested as much as others, but manabase has been ok for me. Not inclined to change it.

Am I completely insane for thinking

4x boros guildgate
4x temple of triumph
4x sacred foundry
4x mutavault
8x mountain

Could work?

We don't have any T1 plays after all.

It definitely could work, I would love to see notes from testing it. I don't know how much it disrupts RR on 2, that's all I care about. Is that something we can calculate?

I used to run this deck (with 8 black sources for up to ten black spells):

https://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/ ... 10/welcome

I know we're running more white spells, so we want more white spells.

Just putting this out there, but don't we have ham's awesome Hypergeometric graph for the manabase?

I rly wish we could fit soldier of the pantheon. It's almost impossible to play him t1, but the lifegain and aggresive body would be nice. Its not going to happen, I'm not saying try to make it work -- just living in a "i wish" scenario lol.

We are trying to run colourless lands too though... And it had 16 untappped red sources...

I rly wish we could fit soldier of the pantheon. It's almost impossible to play him t1, but the lifegain and aggresive body would be nice. Its not going to happen, I'm not saying try to make it work -- just living in a "i wish" scenario lol.

Meh, Firedrinker Satyr.

Yeah but this uses conditional calculations, since we only care about untapped RR on 2. The deck can make RR so many different ways, but only a few are relevant. If someone can figure out the different combinations that work and let me know where it's at, that'd be awesome. I want 90% for untapped RR on two.

One of the comments on my CFB article is "is there a better 1 drop than FDS?"

I didn't know how to respond, it is CLEARLY the best 1 drop in the role.

Just putting this out there, but don't we have ham's awesome Hypergeometric graph for the manabase?

Get Hamwise in here! Lol

One of the comments on my CFB article is "is there a better 1 drop than FDS?"

I didn't know how to respond, it is CLEARLY the best 1 drop in the role.

Agree.

It 100% is.

One of the comments on my CFB article is "is there a better 1 drop than FDS?"

I didn't know how to respond, it is CLEARLY the best 1 drop in the role.

If you think in only Esper matchup, maybe Rakdos Cackler will be a really close Because it can be target with Doom Blade and Ultimate Price.

Yeah, but UW and Bant tho.

Intrigued by this problem and figuring out how to approach it.

There are only 6 starts that we are interested in as they are the only ones that can provide RR on T2
Mountain Mountain
Temple Foundry
Temple Mountain
Gate Mountain
Gate Foundry
Foundry Foundry

Working out how to approach this with an algorithm

Thanks. It is beyond my capabilities.

Well I had no idea I'd have something to say so soon, but Xilez and I just experienced a glimpse of the future if this deck becomes part of the meta.

In a 5-3-2-2 Xilez and I faced off in round 2 in the mirror matchup. I took the first game but in the second I fell for the bait of a yummie mutavault, messing up the stack and loosing the game. Third was WLH + SC ftw for Xilez to go to the finals. I believe he won it after about 5 minutes and a concession of his oppenent. the sideboard of -4 ash zealot and +2 BO +2 Chained seems right on the money.

Intrigued by this problem and figuring out how to approach it.

There are only 6 starts that we are interested in as they are the only ones that can provide RR on T2
Mountain Mountain
Temple Foundry
Temple Mountain
Gate Mountain
Gate Foundry
Foundry Foundry

Working out how to approach this with an algorithm

You really simplify it I will thinking in a formula for it too.

@zemanjaski
You had already said everything, Firedrinker is the best one drop against a open meta. I for sure play it in a open meta over the cackler. In Portugal there are so many players that love UWR combination that it's almost impossible to play any format without opponent with that colours. All of this to say that I think if I go to a big tournament here I
will find a big number of control players with Mizzium Mortars ready to kill my Firedancer. This is not the reason I don't play now Firedancer, the reason it's that I see many Winnies and Mono blue and I like to have some Firedancer for that games. And I'm testing the third Mizzium in my board. If I only play for now in MTGO or if I play now some number of DE maybe I change it for be more appropriate to the meta. I usual prefer play in MTGO the 75 that I'm playing in paper, to real practice with that. But I'm not a grinder.

We probably only need 21 red sources to be fine for that, Z. 20 red gets us RR on T2 90% of the time, and we only see CITP,CITP hands that don't find an untapped source in a draw (or more) less than 5% of the time. 1 more red source should suffice in fixing that.

Feel free to ignore these posts, but tossing up here in case other people want to work on the problem

Its a hypergeo problem, its that it becomes multi variable that makes it tricky. Trying to see if it can be simplified to be NOT multiple variable as the player can handle the squencing provided they get the correct cards.

Starting with our current config of
2 Gate
9 Mountain
4 Vault
4 Foundry
4 Temple
23 lands

we show that the desired 90% RR on t2 with a 23 land config will only reach 89.2%, and thats total not untapped RR. We need 24 lands to be 91% for just Land Land. This is assuming that we are round 89 down and not up. We could consider 89 and tweak a second set of results.

We need to move to 24 lands so for testing sake we'll say we cut a shock. This frees up the one card, which must either be a gate or a mountain. As we are going for 90% RR lets make it as simple as possible and slot it as a
mountain. Our land pool is now such

2 Gate
10 Mountain
4 Vault
4 Foundry
4 Temple
24 lands

This is where our numbercrunching starts. Luckily Ham did most of the work for us! Its down in the MHD section. viewtopic.php?f=92&t=845
We just need to modify the inputs and run the numbers!

Well, this is an interesting list suggested to me by a friend (he top 64'd with Burn at GP Melbourne too):

[deck]
Enchantments
3 Blind Obedience
4 Chained to the Rocks

Instants
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
4 Searing Blood
4 Shock
4 Skullcrack
4 Warleader's Helix

Sorceries
2 Mizzium Mortars

Lands
4 Boros Guildgate
4 Sacred Foundry
1 Temple of Silence
4 Temple of Triumph

10 Mountain
[/deck]

The idea being to completely blank removal spells in your opponent's deck (so no Mutavault's either, as they would just be the first target). Extort is extremely powerful in grindy matchups too and the extra white sources let you really lean on this.

By the power of math I have been summoned. What's the problem I can help solve? The more detail, the better.

I like it a lot. I still think it would be worth running Phoenix though.

Yeah, I like Phoenix too, though it isn't clear if I want to be tapping out at Sorcery speed to give them removal targets. The cards may as well just be completely dead in their hand.

By the power of math I have been summoned. What's the problem I can help solve? The more detail, the better.

We;re trying to determine the probably of Turn 2, untapped RR.

There are only 6 starts that we are interested in as they are the only ones that can provide RR on T2
Mountain Mountain
Temple Foundry
Temple Mountain
Gate Mountain
Gate Foundry
Foundry Foundry

Consider these two manabases.

3 Boros Guildgate
3 Mutavault
9 Mountain
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph

OR

2 Boros Guildgate
3 Mutavault
10 Mountain
4 Sacred Foundry
4 Temple of Triumph

I will say that I do thing phoenix is weak a lot of times.

Ham, its an MHD problem, particularly a slight variation on the Ash Zealot casting formula in your original article.

P_1 Im thinking no change
P_2 Close to no change
P_3 is where the big change comes as the variations have increased due to need for the 6 configs above.

I will say that I do thing phoenix is weak a lot of times.

Yeah, its a 2/2 for 3, which can be very underwhelming.

Well, this is an interesting list suggested to me by a friend (he top 64'd with Burn at GP Melbourne too):

[deck]
Enchantments
3 Blind Obedience
4 Chained to the Rocks

Instants
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Strike
4 Magma Jet
4 Searing Blood
4 Shock
4 Skullcrack
4 Warleader's Helix

Sorceries
2 Mizzium Mortars

Lands
4 Boros Guildgate
4 Sacred Foundry
1 Temple of Silence
4 Temple of Triumph

10 Mountain
[/deck]

The idea being to completely blank removal spells in your opponent's deck (so no Mutavault's either, as they would just be the first target). Extort is extremely powerful in grindy matchups too and the extra white sources let you
really lean on this.

This reminds me of one of my old FNM decks. Originally, the only creature in it was Volatile Rig. It seemed everyone was playing Mono Black, so I ran it. Then I added Boros Reckoner with the Rigs for potential 8 dmg. 4 Chained to the Rocks and full burn suite. It was fun, but lacked the early pressure that your build creates. It won a lot and had mid game burst damage, but slightly lacked the early push. I only played it twice, because of the inconsistency with the coin flipping.

I am testing the deck now and it certainly feels much more fragile without the few creatures we had. Any stumble, flood, or if our opponent puts any aggro plan together and we kind of just die.

I was working on the math problem in excel... but it seems like you guys are covered. I did realize that even with 20 red sources we have to be under 90% because of the Gate/Gate and Temple/Temple (and Gate/Temple) hands.

I was thinking of writing a cockatrice plugin (or maybe collaborate with deckstats.net) that can do these types of mana calculations for any arbitrary deck and mulligan rules of moderate complexity. I have Karsten's Java code, but I think it needs to be re-written and made generic.

It's a non-zero amount of work, and I have a job ... playing magic more fun than writing magic code. If people would use it I might be more motivated.